Sunday 26 May 2013

Finance Topic on Commercial Banking Industry in India

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SWOT Analysis
India Commercial Banking SWOT
Strengths
·  In macroeconomic terms, India is set to be a global growth outperformer in the coming years.

·  India's high savings rate and the efficacy of the regulation undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India have provided for stability.

·  Although loans have been growing rapidly, there are few signs of the excesses that have taken place over the last few years in China.

·  The lack of linkages between Indian banks and the global financial system means that they are comparatively immune to volatility in global markets.
Weaknesses
·  A legacy of the protection of the commercial banking sector, which remains dominated by State Bank of India, is that efficiency levels and product offerings are a long way from world's best practice.

·  The banking system is held back by low levels of per capita GDP.

·  The logistics involved in running a bank can be daunting due to the prevalence of paper-based payment systems (eg:instruments such as cheques).
Opportunities
·  India is still under-banked. Per-capita deposits are low. People with savings often hold their wealth outside the formal banking system.

·  India's banking industry is progressively being opened up to competition from foreign banks.

·  Loans are growing quite rapidly from a low base. Consumer finance is developing quickly.

·  Opportunities exist for mutual funds, insurance companies and organisations offering related products.
Threats
·  The development of particular products, such as mortgages, is hampered by inefficiencies in the housing market (eg: a cumbersome legal system and bizarre planning regulations) that need to be removed through the process of reform.

·  It remains to be seen how effective pension and insurance reforms will be in boosting financial intermediation.
 

Mergers And Acquisitions Outlook For Banks 

With the global financial market and economic recovery picking up in earnest, our Corporate Financing Week team has been looking into the prospects for consolidation and expansion within the commercial banking sector in 2011. We see interesting trends in emerging markets as the internationalisation of retail and investment banking continues.

Western banks need more capital: Spain's caja savings banks are desperately in need of fresh capital to avoid state ownership, while even Britain's part-nationalised banks are likely to need more funds as new regulations are put into place. The UK's Independent Commission on Banking has signalled that it will not recommend that the industry splits up into consumer and investment banks, but it remains likely that its Chairman, former Bank of England economist and Oxford University professor, John Vickers will favour the ring-fencing of the investment and consumer banking units. This will likely raise capital requirements for banks and increase their fundraising costs, as the likelihood of a government bailout on favourable terms for investment banking units would be slim. When taken together with the existing need for new capital, we expect to see many more individual units, both domestic and international, up for sale. Barclays, which escaped the worst ravages of the credit crunch, is looking to sell its commercial mortgage unit Barclays Capital Mortgage Servicing Limited.

European relistings may be some way off: Although the US government has been relatively quick off the mark in selling off the stakes it acquired during the credit crunch, including holdings in Citigroup and automaker GM, European governments have lagged behind. We are not expecting a major acceleration in the process in either the UK or continental Europe, with one of the few indicative dates being the Dutch finance ministry's preference to exit the financial sector over the next five years, with ABN AMRO's listing likely to be no earlier than 2013. A similar timescale is likely to play out in the UK.

Most exciting M&A activity likely to be in emerging markets: Although no emerging market deal is going to match the blockbuster nature of developed market relistings, many of the most exciting deals are going to involve EM companies in one way or another. We are still seeing developed-market companies prowling EMs to add assets to their portfolios in higher growth markets - Standard Chartered has bought the Singapore operations of auto and personal loan specialist GE Money - and expect further deals as the more solvent western institutions attempt to 'buy' their way out of slow growth at home. This trend is going to play out at the same time as EM institutions are becoming more acquisitive themselves. Russia's market leader Sberbank is on the acquisition trail both at home and abroad, with plans to enter investment banking through the purchase of Troika Dialog, and has signalled that it is looking at targets elsewhere in emerging Europe. This is partially about finding new growth sectors, but also about buying expertise, a path a number of Chinese banks are going to tread over the coming years. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has become the country's first bank to buy a stake in a US retail bank following its purchase of 80% of Bank of East Asia's US unit. The deal will gives ICBC 10 branches in California and three in New York.

EM markets will slowly liberalise: The financial crisis and subsequent heavy intervention of Western governments in their financial markets has slowed down the pace of liberalisation in emerging markets. We expect to see a gradual opening up of local banking sectors, as governments slowly divest their remaining financial holdings. Some of these moves are going to be out of necessity, such as Russia's plans to raise US$32bn through the divestiture of state holdings including stakes in Sberbank and smaller rival VTB, but we believe the emerging world is on course to open up further.


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